Have Syrians Escaped the Specter of Division?

By Mohammad Ammar Khaled Al-Saeed*

Yesterday, Syrians celebrated what many described as a national milestone, if not a dream come true—the downfall of the tyrant who fled the country after years of oppressive rule. Yet, while the people’s uprising succeeded in unseating a regime that looted resources, suppressed freedoms, and displaced millions, the question remains: has Syria truly evaded the long-feared prospect of division?

Early Schemes for Partition

By 2014, plans for partitioning Syria were reportedly being prepared, with the country carved up among the key players in its conflict. To address the question of Syria’s territorial integrity, we must first examine the roles of the main actors over the 13 years of revolution.

Russia:

Moscow’s direct military intervention in 2015 followed earlier support for the Assad regime, primarily to safeguard its strategic interests, including gas supply routes. Russia’s involvement was pivotal when rebels threatened to advance on Damascus.

Iran:

Tehran has consistently viewed Syria as a linchpin in its regional expansion strategy. Up until the regime’s final hours, Iran supplied weapons, manpower, and militias to bolster Assad’s forces.

United States: Washington’s intervention was initially justified by the rise of ISIS in 2014, framing its presence in Syria as a counterterrorism effort. It sought to neutralize ISIS and secure control over oil fields to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands.

Turkey:

Ankara justified its incursions into northern Syria as a national security imperative, aiming to curb threats from extremist groups and separatist Kurdish factions.

Israel:

Although Israel refrained from direct involvement, it closely monitored developments and targeted Hezbollah supply lines and other positions it deemed threats to its security.

The Vision for a Divided Syria

As a result, a perception emerged that the map of Syria in the future would be divided as follows:

A U.S.-backed Kurdish statelet in the northeast.

A Russian-protected enclave along the coast and parts of Homs.

A Turkish-administered zone in the north.

An Israeli-influenced territory in the south.

Shifting Dynamics

The operation “Deterrence of Aggression”, has altered these dynamics. Recent reports indicate that Russia has largely withdrawn militarily, retaining only its economic foothold and bases through agreements negotiated to serve both Moscow and Syrian opposition leaders.

Iran, meanwhile, has exited after incurring heavy losses, leaving behind a debt Syrians may someday be asked to repay.

What remains is an entrenched U.S. presence, justified by the need to protect minorities and prevent ISIS resurgence. Washington continues to back Kurdish allies, paving the way for a Kurdish state in the northeast.

Turkey’s influence endures in the north as long as separatist groups operate near its borders, with Ankara likely seeking a more prominent role should Syria’s crisis deepen further.

Israel, however, has taken bolder steps. As of December 9, 2024, it has seized over 280 square kilometers of Syrian territory, equating to nearly a quarter of Lebanon’s size. Officially labeled as a temporary and precautionary move, there are no guarantees it won’t become permanent, transforming buffer zones into entrenched control.

Charting a Path Forward

Syria today stands effectively divided into two regions: a northeastern Kurdish-led entity and a southern zone under competing influences, with preparations for a southwestern enclave and the potential for a coastal state. This trajectory raises the sobering question: will a united Syria ever emerge again?

In this critical juncture, swift action is essential to reintegrate Syria within its Arab context and foster political stability. The nation’s leadership must engage regional and international powers with diplomacy and pragmatism, prioritizing the unity, sovereignty, and independence of the Syrian state. Only then can the dream of a single, undivided Syria be realized.

* Mohammad Ammar Khaled Al-Saeed is a Syrian Economist and Social Researcher