Warning of a Global Famine Risk Amid Converging Crises

The global economy is entering a phase of deeply intertwined structural shocks that can no longer be understood—or contain isolation. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered a chain reaction of mutually reinforcing disruptions, amplifying their impact far beyond their individual effects. The world is now approaching a critical juncture where food insecurity could escalate into famine conditions in parts of the developing world.

At the core of this emerging crisis lies the convergence of six key drivers: disruptions to energy supplies, breakdowns in global supply chains, a tightening fertilizer market, intensifying climate shocks—particularly the anticipated El Niño cycle—alongside record levels of public debt, persistent inflation, and a growing wave of export restrictions.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Strategic Chokepoint

Few locations better capture the fragility of the global system than the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of global oil consumption – equivalent to around 21 million barrels per day – passes through this narrow corridor, alongside a substantial share of liquefied natural gas exports. Its strategic relevance has only grown amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and Europe’s continued dependence on alternative energy sources.

Beyond energy, the strait is also a critical artery for agricultural inputs, with close to a third of globally traded seaborne fertilizers – particularly urea and ammonia – transiting through it. This concentration of vital flows within a passage only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point makes even temporary disruptions highly consequential.

Recent tensions have already demonstrated this vulnerability. Oil prices surged sharply within days, while shipping costs along alternative routes rose significantly. Disruptions to gas infrastructure have further constrained global supply, feeding directly into higher fertilizer production costs. What began as an energy shock is rapidly cascading into transport, industry and agriculture, raising the cost of essential goods worldwide and placing strain on energy importing economies.

Fertilizers: The Weakest Link in the Food System

Fertilizers remain the hidden backbone of global food production, with natural gas accounting for most input costs in nitrogen-based fertilizers. Any disruption in gas markets, particularly in the Gulf region, translates almost immediately into tighter fertilizer supply and higher prices.

This shock has been compounded by protectionist policies. Major producers, including China, have restricted exports to safeguard domestic supply, further tightening global markets. Prices have risen sharply, forcing production cuts and shutdowns across parts of Asia. The result is a contraction in global supply at a time when demand is seasonally critical.

The implications for agriculture are immediate. Farmers – especially in developing economies – are already reducing fertilizer use due to cost and availability constraints. This is likely to depress yields of staple crops such as wheat, maize and rice, with declines significant enough to create a meaningful gap in global food supply. With the 2026 planting season underway, the effects will not be delayed – they will be felt within the current harvest cycle.

Climate Stress and the El Niño Effect

Overlaying these pressures is the growing likelihood of an El Niño event in 2026. This recurring climate pattern, driven by abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific, disrupts global weather systems, altering rainfall distribution and intensifying extreme conditions.

The result is a dual shock: drought in some key agricultural regions and flooding in others. NASA estimates that such patterns affect at least a quarter of the world’s farmland. Rising temperatures further exacerbate soil moisture loss and reduce crop resilience, while also increasing the spread of pests and diseases.

Under normal conditions, fertilizer use can partially offset climate stress. But in the current environment—where fertilizer availability is constrained, the system becomes far more fragile. The combination of input shortages and climatic disruption creates the risk of a “double shock” to agricultural output, with potentially severe reductions in production across vulnerable regions.

Debt, Inflation and Economic Fragility

These supply-side shocks are unfolding against a backdrop of acute macroeconomic vulnerability. Global debt has climbed to unprecedented levels, exceeding $345 trillion, with many governments still burdened by pandemic-era borrowing. At the same time, economic growth has slowed, while inflation—particularly in food and energy—remains elevated.

For developing economies, this combination is particularly destabilizing. Higher import costs for food and fuel widen trade deficits, while rising global interest rates increase the burden of debt servicing. Currency depreciation further amplifies the cost of imports, eroding purchasing power and fiscal space simultaneously.

In such an environment, access to food increasingly becomes a function of affordability rather than availability. Governments face a tightening constraint: rising import bills and debt obligations with diminishing capacity to subsidise or intervene.

Export Restrictions and Resource Nationalism

As pressures mount, countries are turning inward. Export restrictions on fertilizers and staple crops are becoming more widespread, as governments seek to protect domestic markets. While rational at the national level, these measures have destabilising effects globally.

A relatively small number of countries dominate exports of key commodities. When these suppliers impose restrictions, global supply contracts sharply, pushing prices higher and triggering panic buying in international markets. For low-income, import-dependent countries, the consequences are severe—not only in terms of cost, but also in physical access to supply.

This dynamic risks shifting the crisis from one of affordability to one of outright scarcity, a far more dangerous phase, where traditional policy tools become ineffective.

Food Insecurity as a Catalyst for Instability

History suggests that food crises rarely remain confined to the economic sphere. Sharp increases in food prices have repeatedly acted as catalysts for social unrest and political instability, particularly in fragile states.

When households in developing economies already spend a large share of their income on food, even modest price increases can have immediate and destabilising effects. Past crises have shown how food shocks can amplify underlying vulnerabilities—poverty, inequality, weak governance, transforming economic stress into broader instability.

In the current context, the risk is not merely humanitarian. Food insecurity has the potential to reshape political landscapes, fuel migration pressures, and intensify conflict dynamics.

A System Ill-Equipped for Polycrisis

The unfolding crisis exposes a fundamental weakness in the international system: its inability to manage interconnected risks. Institutions remain organised along sectoral lines—energy, agriculture, and finance despite the increasingly systemic nature of global shocks.

This fragmentation limits both anticipation and response. While mechanisms exist to coordinate oil reserves, comparable frameworks for fertilizers or food supplies remain underdeveloped. The absence of integrated analysis means that cascading risks are often recognised only after they materialise.

Responding to a Systemic Food Crisis

Addressing the current situation requires a multi-layered response. In the short term, international coordination must extend beyond energy markets to include fertilizers and critical agricultural inputs. Vulnerable countries need support in diversifying supply chains, while humanitarian agencies must prepare for a surge in demand.

Agricultural strategies must also adapt, incorporating both input constraints and climate variability through more flexible and resilient approaches.

Over the longer term, the priority is structural. This includes building strategic reserves of food and fertilizers, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, diversifying trade dependencies, and strengthening global mechanisms for monitoring and managing interconnected risks. Debt restructuring will also be essential to restore fiscal space in the most vulnerable economies.

A Systemic Crisis in Motion

The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story. It has become a central trigger in a broader systemic crisis—linking energy markets, supply chains, food production and economic stability in a tightly interconnected loop.

Without coordinated and forward-looking action, the risk is clear: what begins as a supply shock could evolve into a full-scale global food crisis, with profound humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.