What If U.S. Forces Withdraw from Syria?

The sudden and unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has raised pressing questions about the country’s future, the actors vying for control, and how these forces will interact with their neighbors and the wider international community. Today, the Syrian landscape is shaped by a myriad of regional powers, most notably Turkey, which, in collaboration with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), played a key role in toppling Assad’s regime.

However, Turkey faces a significant challenge in Syria: the Kurdish presence represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ankara staunchly opposes any perceived threats to its national security along its southern border and is resolute in preventing the SDF from seizing Syria’s oil fields, which could provide the group with strategic leverage and funding for its military operations. Consequently, the Turkish military has committed to extensive operations aimed at disarming the SDF and forcing their withdrawal from key territories.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed Turkey’s determination to eradicate what he terms as “terrorism” in Syria, referring to both ISIS and the SDF. Preparations for a military offensive in Kobani, located approximately 150 kilometers northeast of Aleppo, have been underway. This prompted a swift U.S. response, with American forces deploying to the area and raising their flag as a clear signal to Turkey to refrain from military action.

A Complex Security Landscape

The dynamics in Syria extend beyond Turkey and the SDF. ISIS cells remain active in the Syrian desert, seeking to reassert control in areas spanning eastern Syria and western Iraq. The tri-border area between Syria, Iraq, and Jordan risks becoming a staging ground for ISIS operations. Adding to this volatility, the SDF holds around 40,000 ISIS affiliates in detention, posing a persistent threat of prison breaks and renewed violence.

Complicating matters further are rival armed factions that oppose HTS under its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani (formerly Ahmed al-Shara). These factions could exploit the power vacuum to destabilize the region and align with other militant groups for political and territorial gains.

The country’s minorities also face mounting uncertainty. Alawites, whose historic ties to Assad have become a burden, express frustration over provocations targeting their communities. Similarly, Christians fear attacks on their places of worship and potential persecution, despite assurances from HTS pledging legal accountability for crimes committed under Assad’s rule.

Regional Ramifications

The geopolitical fallout from Assad’s removal, coupled with the retreat of Russian and Iranian influence, has unsettled neighboring states.

Iraq:

Iraq has fortified its border with Syria to prevent militant infiltration, fearing that Syria’s collapse could inspire similar scenarios within Iraq. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government faces domestic pressure to consolidate arms under state control and dismantle militias aligned with the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Jordan:

Amman is bracing for potential spillovers, particularly from armed groups exploiting Syria’s instability to launch cross-border attacks or using Jordan as a corridor to Israel. Such developments could jeopardize Jordan’s national security and strain its alliances.

Egypt:

Cairo views the changes in Syria with apprehension, particularly after images surfaced of al-Jawlani meeting members of Egypt’s outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. This has been interpreted as an implicit challenge to Egypt’s government.

Gulf States:

The UAE and Saudi Arabia remain cautious, wary of political Islam gaining a foothold in a strategically vital state like Syria. Their stance contrasts sharply with Qatar, which continues to support the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and collaborates closely with Turkey in shaping the post-Assad order.

Israel:

Israel has advanced into southern Syria, citing concerns over extremist groups near its borders. Israeli officials have repeatedly visited newly controlled areas in the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, emphasizing that their presence is temporary, pending a new agreement with Syria’s transitional government to safeguard Israeli security.

A Shifting Strategic Equation

A U.S. withdrawal from Syria would amplify these challenges, creating a vacuum likely to be exploited by local and regional actors. For Turkey, it may remove a key obstacle to its military ambitions but could escalate clashes with the SDF, risking a broader conflict. For neighboring states, the absence of U.S. forces heightens fears of renewed ISIS activity and unchecked militant movements.

Ultimately, Syria’s transformation will reverberate across the region, testing the resilience of alliances, the capacity of local governments to manage threats, and the willingness of global powers to engage in a rapidly evolving crisis. Whether stability can be restored or the region descends into further chaos depends on how these players navigate an increasingly fragmented and volatile landscape.

Syria’s Ailing Economy: Challenges for the Post-Assad Era

In addition to the political dilemmas facing Syria after the fall of Assad’s regime, the country grapples with pressing economic challenges that could obstruct its recovery. Syria’s state treasury is nearly depleted, and severe shortages persist in food, medicine, fuel, water, and electricity. These deficiencies risk sparking public unrest, which could be exploited by factions seeking to further complicate the political landscape or exert pressure on the new government for specific gains.

Syria’s economy, once reliant on agriculture and industry, has contracted by a staggering 90% between 2011 and 2024, with inflation soaring past 140%. The country’s oil and gas fields, many of which require significant investment and development, remain largely out of the new government’s control. Current government-controlled fields yield an estimated 25,000 barrels of oil per day, whereas fields under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and U.S. forces could potentially produce up to 400,000 barrels daily if properly rehabilitated.

According to IMF, the cost of rebuilding Syria has escalated dramatically, from $250 billion in 2017 to an estimated $600 billion today. Such a financial burden is far beyond Syria’s capacity to handle alone, underscoring the necessity for extensive international cooperation to facilitate reconstruction.

Who Will Fill the Void After a U.S. Withdrawal?

The future of U.S. forces in Syria raises critical questions. Currently, the Pentagon estimates approximately 2,000 American troops are deployed in Syria, including 900 on extended missions. As the U.S. considers its next moves, key issues emerge:

• Will U.S. forces withdraw despite the presence of two Russian military bases in Syria?

• Could control of eastern Syria shift to Turkey through coordination with President Trump’s administration?

• How might a U.S. pullout impact American operations in neighboring Iraq?

• Is Washington considering a broader strategic withdrawal from the Middle East, relying instead on naval assets and bases in the Gulf region?

• What role might NATO play, particularly as the alliance plans to establish a regional office in Amman, Jordan, by 2025?

• Could Islamic forces, including Turkish and Arab contingents, enter Syria to secure their regional interests and curb the spread of terrorism?

These questions not only shape Syria’s immediate future but also carry profound implications for the broader Middle East and its relations with global powers.

European Perspectives

The European Union remains deeply engaged with Syria but is cautiously monitoring the new government’s direction. Brussels has expressed its willingness to provide support, conditional on the formation of an inclusive, non-sectarian government representing all Syrians. However, European delegations visiting Damascus have voiced clear concerns about the security vacuum and its potential to destabilize global peace, particularly through a resurgence of migration flows or the use of Syrian territory as a launchpad for terrorism.

The EU has also refrained from full-scale cooperation with the new Syrian government until the future of Russian involvement in Syria is clarified and the government’s domestic and foreign policies are outlined. Nonetheless, European companies view Syria’s reconstruction as a lucrative opportunity and a vital future market.

Furthermore, Europe sees potential in a pipeline project to transport Qatari natural gas to Europe via Syria. This would alleviate Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, stabilize supply chains, and lower the cost of natural gas for its struggling economies, especially in light of the ongoing Ukraine war.

NATO’s Role in the Syrian Equation

President Trump’s administration recognizes Syria’s strategic importance as a hub for international trade routes. Containing China’s influence requires ensuring U.S. leverage in Syria without incurring significant costs or endangering American troops.

Although Syria was not a major trading partner for China, Beijing had incorporated Damascus into its Belt and Road Initiative, banking on its strategic location near Europe and the Mediterranean. This heightens the stakes for Washington, which may turn to NATO for a greater role in Syria, leveraging Turkey’s membership in the alliance.

Negotiating a framework with President Erdoğan will be crucial for Trump’s administration, but such a move risks alienating other U.S. allies in the region.

The Political Road Ahead

Washington is expected to play a pivotal role in helping Syrians restructure their political landscape. Efforts are underway to craft a comprehensive political process for establishing a post-Assad government, one that Western nations insist must be inclusive and representative. The Biden administration has already dispatched a diplomatic delegation to engage with Syria’s new leadership.

In Congress, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have proposed a resolution supporting a peaceful political transition in Syria. The resolution emphasizes the protection of religious and ethnic minorities while advocating for a new constitution that reflects the country’s diverse makeup.

However, major questions remain unanswered:

• Will Syria adopt a federal system or grant extensive autonomy to its provinces?

• Can a new constitution balance the interests of the nation’s varied communities?

A premature U.S. withdrawal without addressing these fundamental issues would pose a grave risk to Syria’s stability and that of the entire region, with far-reaching global repercussions.

Conclusion

As the United States weighs its military and strategic options in Syria, the stakes extend far beyond the nation’s borders. The intertwined challenges of reconstruction, governance, and regional security demand a coordinated international approach. Syria’s post-Assad trajectory will serve as a litmus test for global powers, shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East for decades to come.